World Bank calls Horn of Africa famine manmade

By Axel Hildebrand

BERLIN(Reuters) - The famine in the Horn of Africa is manmade - the result of artificially high prices for food and civil conflict, the World Bank's lead economist for Kenya Wolfgang Fengler told Reuters Tuesday. "This crisis is manmade," Fengler said in a telephone interview. "Droughts have occurred over and again, but you need bad policymaking for that to lead to a famine."
Some 12.4 million people in the Horn of Africa - including Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti - are affected by the worst drought in decades, according to the United Nations. Tens of thousands of people have already died.

Fengler said the price of maize, or corn, was significantly higher in east Africa than in the rest of the world due to controls on local food markets.

"In Kenya, the price for corn is 60 to 70 percent above the world average at the moment," he said. "A small number of farmers are controlling the market which is keeping prices artificially high."

The World Bank said Monday its Food Price index increased 33 percent in July from a year ago and stayed close to 2008 peak levels, with large rises in the prices for maize and sugar.

High food and energy prices have stoked inflation pressures around the globe, but the problem has been more acute in developing nations.

"Maize is cheaper in the United States and in Germany than it is in eastern Africa," said Fengler.

Somalia's two-decade long war is also seen as exacerbating the famine in the Horn of Africa.

Some 3.7 million Somalis risk starvation in two regions of south Somalia controlled by militant group al Shabaab, which has blamed food aid for creating dependency and blocked humanitarian deliveries in the past.

The group has accused the United Nations of exaggerating the severity of the drought and politicizing the crisis.

Aid from democracies stifles Ethiopian democracy

Ethiopian America Council

Drought Uncovers Aid Abuse

Though the Ethiopian people have themselves known it for a long time, it should once again become apparent to the world community that the repressive regime in Addis Ababa is using the long-term aid from democracies around the world to stifle the democratic aspirations of this important but economically deprived African country.

Nations in the Horn of Africa – Eritrea, Somalia, and to a lesser degree, Kenya – are all experiencing another severe drought this year, along with Ethiopia. The repressive regime of Meles Zenawi has been diverting all aid to the country only to those who are supportive of his party, the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF), leaving many thousand of his fellow citizens in dire and life-threatening circumstances.



A History of Diverting Aid

As early as a year ago, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) uncovered that much of the money that poured into the country during the famine of the mid-1980's, by means of the Band Aid Trust, Live Aid, and other organizations, was unfairly diverted only to supporters of the regime's part y TPLF and much of it went to arms purchases and so-called political education.

At that time, the cold war was at its height and the TPLF was battling an Ethiopian government propped up by the former Soviet Union. Under the American administration of Ronald Reagan, the CIA was operating under an edict to destabilize and limit the Soviet Union and its efforts in the Third World. So the diversion of aid funds to the TPLF, with much of it being diverted away from humanitarian use, was winked at by Washington, London, and other European capitals at the time.

Zenawi Government Denials Do Not Reflect the Truth

In light of the most recent drought plaguing the region, the BBC and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism (BIJ) has again uncovered abuse earlier this summer in that the Ethiopian government is using billions of dollars of development aid as a tool for political oppression. While they were investigating the abuse of aid funding, the BBC and the BIJ also uncovered evidence of ongoing and widespread use of torture and execution by Ethiopian government security forces.

Just as they did in the 1980's, government officials are once again denying that they use aid from other countries as a reward for backing the Meles Zenawi regime. The denials are tough to back up though, when one travels the country and sees pockets of citizens actually starving to death while surrounding communities seem to be doing comparatively well. Of course, these well-off communities are those that supposedly support and vote for the existing regime, which has been in power since 1991. Understand that these communities were initially persuaded to join the governing party when they also were faced with the starvation of their children and the very survival of the communities themselves.

BBC and BIJ Journalists Disguised as Tourists

Three of the worlds greatest democratic institutions, the United States, the European Economic Union, and the United Kingdom contribute hundreds of millions of dollars each year. Because of the history of abuse, because of the crackdown in 2005 that left hundreds dead and thousands detained, and because of reports from citizens themselves, BBC and BIJ journalists entered the countryside posing as tourists. What they found should be disquieting to all the democracies that contribute so much to what they think is the well-being of all Ethiopian citizens.

The undercover journalists met with a group of farmers in a secret location. One farmer who had failed to support the Meles regime told them that because of his political views, he and others like him face great intimidation and that they are denied the right to fertilizer and seeds because of their politics. They have also uncovered human rights abuse by the government – rape and murder to accompany the famine – in the Ogadan region that has sent thousands of Ethiopians fleeing into nearby Kenya.

Aid Abuse Is Far More Than Terrible

Human Rights Watch has gathered enough evidence to show world donors who are financing the present Ethiopian government that their aid is a major contribution to human rights abuses in the nation. In fact, in some sort of perverse reward system, aid to the government increases as it becomes more intolerant and cruel. The nastiness of the Meles regime grows daily and has become a fact of life. Abuses and atrocities include:

- Human rights abuses of murder and rape in areas with opposition parties.
- Revenge killings in opposition areas, ten civilians killed for every one security force officer killed.
- Extortion for political support by withholding loans, fertilizer, and seed.
- High school students, teachers, and civil servants forced to attend indoctrination sessions on ruling party ideology.
- Pernicious civil rights laws that close political space and hamper freedom of association and expression.
- Harassment of journalists and sending political activists into exile.

No credible reporting agencies have determined the extent of abuse, and many foreign aid workers, in an eagerness to show progress, are shutting their eyes to the reality behind official statistics, said a Human Rights Watch official. Ethiopia is now the largest recipient of World Bank funds and foreign aid in Africa. What is all that aid being used for?

A farmer in the Amhara region pretty much summed it up by saying to the Human Rights Watch: "The safety net is used to buy loyalty to the ruling party. That is money that comes from abroad. Democracy is being compromised by money that comes from abroad. Do those people who send the money know what it is being used for? Let them know that it is being used against democracy."

Foreign Aid Supports a Plutocratic – a Kleptocratic – Government

Mother nature, a powerful global force, seems to pale when it comes to the ability of the current Ethiopian government to inflict famine on the people of Ethiopia. Mother nature, in her mysterious cycles, has once again visited a drought on the populations that make up the Horn of Africa. The government of Ethiopia, already the largest recipient of foreign aid in Africa, has made sure that aid funding goes only to those who support and work for the Meles plutocracy.

This practice of diverting aid based on political affiliation has allowed the government to enrich a ruling elite that holds title to most of the industry and agriculture enterprise in the country. Citizens find that if they are not supporters of the regime, they cannot compete in the Ethiopian business world. Nor can they tend farms to any degree of fruitfulness. Indeed, the plutocracy owns practically every business the country has managed to raise, and only farms under the thumb of the ruling party are allowed to bear fruit.

In fact, the ruling party's use of foreign aid to enrich themselves rather than to help their fellow citizens, and their denial of business entrepreneurship to all except party members, can only lead one to understand that the government thrives by stealing from its own people – a true kleptocracy – a government of thieves. The world community of donors should seriously take into account that the International Monetary Fund forgave billions of dollars in Ethiopian debt to the institution in 2005. How the thieves must have rejoiced as they were assisted in thieving even more money from the global community.

A Nation Held Hostage by Famine

The present Ethiopian government, the regime of Prime Minister Meles, the ruling TPLF party, have pulled the wool over the eyes of the global community while they act as pernicious predators on their fellow citizens. Even with all the past aid, the GDP of the nation is among the lowest in the world, but a government elite is sitting atop a mass of wealth and privilege. Indeed, they are happy for the latest drought, waiting for the next boat load of aid money coming in, so they can further enrich themselves and their cronies, while holding the general population hostage with famine.

The Ethiopian Americans Council (EAC)
East Coast Office
10125 Colesville RD, Ste # 104
Silver Spring, MD 20901
www.eacouncil.org
ethioamericans@gmail.com

West Coast Office
90 East Gish Road Ste # 25
San Jose, CA 95112

Obang Metho: My visit to Australia

Australia is home to many Ethiopians who have come from all parts of our mother country. During my recent visit there, I had the joy of experiencing what it might be like in Ethiopia to have real community where acceptance was not based on ethnicity, religion, politics, viewpoint, age, gender or any other differences because I saw it demonstrated over and over again in Australia during my recent trip there.

Some of the best times occurred during the informal question and answer periods following my talks in Melbourne and Perth as well as during informal times when I simply had the opportunity to meet and spend time with some of the great members of our greater Ethiopian family. Some of these stories, lessons and personal examples of Ethiopians are encouraging as I can see them working to construct the bridge to a New Ethiopia of the future where we would not be devalued, judged or excluded from the full rights of personhood or citizenship simply because we were forced into some ethnic or other kind of limiting box.

Arriving in Australia and meeting these Ethiopians—who I had never seen face to face, but with whom I had been in communication for over a year—was very rewarding. The first night I arrive, my host brother Sisay had planned a backyard barbeque at his home as a welcome. Nearly a hundred people came; people I did not know, but who already knew about the SMNE; yet, we met together like family or long-time friends. We ate and celebrated with each other; I not even knowing their names, which part of Ethiopia they were from, their ethnicity, their religion, their political background or anything else about them. Instead, what connected us was that we were all from Ethiopia.

Later on, after the guests had eaten and were sitting down talking, only then could you hear some of the people speaking different ethnic languages; like English, Amharic, Tigrayan, Oromo and Gurage. Then it really struck me that this was like the New Ethiopia where the beauty of our diversity could be experienced as we all came together first as humans.

Discussions went on between younger and older guests, between men and women and between people of different backgrounds. We talked about what was going on at home and how we were affected in different ways. People respectfully listened and responded; with no one interrupting others. It became very obvious that even though we Ethiopians were physically living far from Ethiopia; our minds still were focused back home. We felt free to talk, laugh and simply enjoy the company of one another in an affirming atmosphere that was created by simply appreciating each other.

We began to experience the joy of coming together like this and were inspired with what could happen in Ethiopia if this were transplanted there. One gentleman said that he and his family had fought with the TPLF at the beginning, but now they all realized how Meles had hijacked their efforts and this was why he did not support this regime any longer.We talked until midnight and all left feeling highly encouraged as we looked forward to the meeting the next day. (Read my story about Ethiopians in Melbourne)

Some of the most interesting parts came up during the question and answer period. Some of the Somali Ethiopians present at the meeting brought attention to the hunger and drought in the Ogaden and beyond. It was a very good and important discussion where some agreement was reached that this crisis should not be ignored by other Ethiopians like has been done in the past. Other people also raised issues that were important to them; after which the meeting ended and a number of us went to an Ethiopian restaurant where the discussion continued into the evening.

The next day I was the guest of a brother Berhe from the Tigray region who had taken the entire day off from work to give me a highly interesting tour of the city of Melbourne. We talked about many issues; our personal lives, our country, the TPLF/EPRDF and what each of us thought about all of this. The topic of ethnicity was not part of it; mostly because it did not matter to us as we thoroughly enjoyed each other’s company.

In the late afternoon he took me to a radio interview at the Special Broadcasting Service (SBS) a radio station where Ethiopians have their own program in Amharic, among the many other languages diverse programs. I met with a very gracious Ethiopian brother Ato Kassahun who would be doing the interview, who then introduced me to colleagues from all over the world who did similar programs. Following the interview, we, along with my host, Sisay Tsegaw, joined with some Tigrayan friends for dinner. We had an excellent discussion while eating injera.

This time, the topic of ethnicity was discussed. One Tigrayan brother talked how his appearance—which easily identified him as Tigrayan—had put him into a box he did not like. He talked about the need for reconciliation if we were to have an Ethiopia where all our people were viewed as equals. He talked about how ethnicity, a tool of the TPLF/EPRDF, was clearly moving Ethiopia backwards; dividing us, creating hostility and giving the TPLF opportunity to keep us hostage. He also explained his resentment towards the TPLF for intentionally alienating non-TPLF Tigrayans from the mainstream opposition; making them victims of this system on both sides as most non-Tigrayans assumed he, and others like him, supported the regime. This was another very good discussion. After listening carefully, I learned that if the problem of Ethiopia is to be solved, it will come out of discussions like these between one person and another. I will never forget this day.

The next day I was invited to lunch at the home of the head of the Ethiopian community, Ato Taye. He had also invited another friend brother Omar, of Oromo-Muslim background, as well as Ato Bichok, a brother from the Gambella region.We met Taye’s wife and had a delicious lunch while discussing issues related to Ethiopia as well as local issues related to the extreme hardship faced by some in the Ethiopian community there in Melbourne.

Later in the day, it was decided that Omar would take the day off from work to give me the chance to see some of the most beautiful parts of Australia on the Great Ocean Road. The Great Ocean Road is a 243-kilometre (151 mi) stretch of road along the south-eastern coast of Australia between the Victorian cities of Torquay and Warrnambool.

As the sun rose the next morning, Ato Taye, Omar, Sisay and myself took off for an eight-hour drive to Great Ocean Road, one of the most scenic highways in Australia. The road traverses rainforests, as well as beaches and cliffs composed of limestone and sandstone, which is susceptible to erosion. As we drove, we talked in depth as we viewed the beautiful landscape. It was amazing what we learned. Brother Omar talked about his childhood, growing up a Muslim, where he had had the opportunity of having very positive relationships with Christian family members and friends; expressing disappointment that such relationships have been needlessly poisoned by the ethnic and religious divisive politics of the TPLF. What Omar was saying was not new to me as I have heard this lament from many other Ethiopians all over the world.

Ato Taye said that the religious and ethnic differences did not matter much in the past. He explained that before 2003, he did not even know the ethnicity of many of his best friends because at that time, these tribal divisions were not present to the same degree. As an example, he said that he did not know the ethnic background of one of his best friends of forty years until more recently when he learned his friend was Gurage.

We discussed another example based on religious differences. Muslims usual do not eat meat killed by a Christian, but Sisay told of how his father had said this was not always the case. He told of how Muslims and Christians had prayed together to God for rain during a drought. During this time of hunger, they had killed a cow and shared the meat together.

The conclusion was that who led the country made a big difference as leaders can move a country backwards or forwards—towards harmony or towards division as is the situation in Ethiopia now. As we enjoyed seeing the beautiful landscape, it reminded us of the highlands of Ethiopia. When we saw the thick forests of eucalyptus trees; it reminded us of how Menelik took this native tree of Australia, from Australia many years ago and planted it in Ethiopia. The tree is now abundant all over Ethiopia.

My mind was racing as to how Ethiopians; wherever they are in the Diaspora, could take their knowledge—like a tree—and take it back to Ethiopia to plant it. What a blessing it could become in Ethiopia. One man, Menelik, who was a leader, had the vision of planting such trees to make Ethiopia more beautiful. Even though he is now gone, Ethiopians still enjoy the beauty of this Australian tree.

Leaders who care for the people; not only in the present, but to come, can leave a wonderful legacy of harmony, equality, prosperity, unity and justice rather than a legacy of deceit, hatred, violence, corruption and poverty. The latter is the poisonous fruit of the TPLF and its ethnic politics that holds Ethiopia back; who will plant what will move us forward?

In the evening we finally returned after many hours of very rich, stimulating and deep conversation that none of us will ever forget. We all agreed that if Ethiopians had the opportunity to spend time together like we had been doing, we could re-discover the joy of being together as people.

The next day, I had the privilege of meeting with six great Ethiopian women who uplifted me with their vision to build institution for supporting the healthy development of young Ethiopians that they were carrying out in practical action. These extraordinary women, who came from different regions and ethnic groups, came together around a common concern—helping each other and young Ethiopians reach their potential rather than becoming involved in drugs or crime as they struggled to adjust to a new culture; different from their parents. The efforts of these mothers were inspiring as they had become mentors of these school-age boys through getting them involved in organized soccer. This was not only for their own children, but for others as well. It was making a real difference in their lives.

After speaking to the women and hearing about their efforts, their leader sister Tenenet arranged for me to meet with these young Ethiopians in the football field, young people from the age of 14 to 20, who were practicing soccer in the field. I encouraged them to work very hard to be productive citizens and positive role models; telling them how they must make this a priority for themselves. I used my own example of immigrating to Canada without any family members when I was only 17; requiring me to take my own education very seriously and to be careful to stay out of trouble. I reminded them how easy it is to make a mistake if one is not self-motivated and disciplined. I also encouraged them to not let the tribal thinking, which is so prevalent within our society, to affect them.

That evening, the joy of community again brought diverse people together. I was invited for dinner to the home of Bichok, a Nuer man from Gambella who was married to an Anuak woman. Other Ethiopians including brother Jamma, a wonderful man from the Somali region of Ethiopia were also invited as well. As we ate together, what a great discussion we had about who we are as people.

The last day of my visit in Melbourne, these leaders and friends decided we should call a casual meeting at an Ethiopian restaurant in order to explore the next steps to take in Melbourne. We were expecting only a few people, but nearly 60 people showed up. We talked about the change we wanted to bring to Ethiopia; but that it had to start by coming together as people first. One man said, “Life is too short to hold on to these negative attitudes. We must start with caring for each other.”

Many people opened up; seeming unafraid to share their real feelings. Some publically apologized; saying they were sorry if they had hurt others in the community or if they had not cooperated or supported others when it had been needed. People spoke emotionally from the heart; telling about how this ethnic problem was even affecting their marriages, but also how they believed that they, as individuals and as a community, could really change. The consensus was that the healthy Ethiopia they so desired could begin by creating a healthy community among Ethiopians in Melbourne. This discussion went on for several hours. When it finally finished, I went directly to the airport; leaving Melbourne and arriving in Perth at midnight.

When I got off the plane in Perth, just like many times in the past, I was met by two Ethiopians I had never met; Ato Berhanu and brother Abera yet, as we talked and laughed, it felt like we already knew each other. They took me to a hotel and the next morning, they came to take me to lunch prior to the meeting. The meeting was one of the most diverse meetings I have ever seen. Nearly every region of Ethiopia was represented—Gambella, the Ogaden, Tigray, Benishangul, Southern Nations, the Amhara region, Afar, Oromia and even Southern Sudan. The discussion was very uplifting and encouraging.

People were free to challenge me or each other; openly saying what was on their minds. Some were very emotional. One of those there was Ato Gebremedhin Araya, a former Head of Finance for the TPLF and came out saying he used to work with the TPLF, but was not doing so anymore. He believed that the TPLF was holding everyone hostage by terrorizing the people.

The final comments were made by an Ogadeni sister who inspired us all! This brilliant and articulate woman told the people that this was the first meeting of Ethiopians she had ever attended where she felt safe; even with the Ethiopian flag behind the podium. People laughed as she said this. She explained how her grandfather had been killed during Haile Selassie’s rule; that her father was killed during the Derg and that her brother was killed by the TPLF/EPRDF; but, despite it all, she said she was willing to work to cooperate even to the point that she would run for prime minister of a new Ethiopia! She received an overwhelming applause from the people. She went on to say that the problem of Ethiopia must be solved in a human way and stated the SMNE motto: “No one will be free until all are free.”

People were happy and joyful; believing that if we addressed the problem of Ethiopians by reaching out to talk to each other, by carefully listening to what they said—even when in disagreement, by respecting the innate humanity and dignity of others and by showing genuine care towards others; it would bring reconciliation between people in Ethiopia and within the Horn of Africa. Reconciliation is the foundation of the New Ethiopia we seek and I saw it emerge at the community level—from the BBQ on the first night I arrived in Australia to this final meeting with Ethiopians in Perth and everything in-between; it was a joy to see!

Let us now build bridges to each other like what happened at these meetings! The bridges we construct are not only for the present, but to be used and enjoyed by people of the future just like Ethiopians still love the eucalyptus trees; not only for its beauty, but also because it can be used for practical reasons—to build homes, to provide medication, for shelter and for many other uses! Menelik had the vision for the future that left us this tree; what will we leave to our descendents?

May God help us plant the seeds of reconciliation that will bring a legacy of love, justice, peace, harmony and prosperity to a New Ethiopia. Let us sow the seeds by reaching out to others, by admitting our own flaws, by forgiving each other for the wounds of the past and by appreciating the value that God has given to all human kind! What a joy it would be for us Ethiopians to leave such a legacy for those still to come!

Please do not hesitate to email me, Obang Metho if you have comments: Obang@solidaritymovement.org

Crackdown in Addis Ababa Internet Cafés, Two arrested on Tuesday

Addis Neger

Two unidentified Internet Café users are reportedly arrested on Tuesday while they were using a Café around 4 kilo. Sources that were in the Cafe told Addis Neger reporters that security agents in plain clothes took the two individuals with computers they were using. The owner of the Café was told that the arrest is “related with terrorism” and the PCs to be returned after investigation.

According to a source who was in the café during the arrest, all users were told to shutdown their computers while the two were separated for investigation and the café closed for about 20 minutes. The security operatives entered the café after the two “suspects” opened email accounts and websites. The two was ordered to leave their seat without closing their accounts and sites they were visiting.

“It is shocking to see people using Internet café besides you are arrested for terrorism,” another witness told Addis Neger. We can establish neither the identity nor the where about of the two people arrested. However, all our sources identified them as “youth in their 20s or probably early 30s.” Addis Neger refrained from mentioning the exact name and location of the Internet Café to protect their business interest.

Addis Neger reporters confirmed that Internet cafés in Addis Ababa are becoming targets of the security operatives in recent months. One of our reporters witnessed last week a young Internet user, in one of the Cafés around Piassa, told by security agents to close down Ethiopian opposition websites. Another customer of the same area told Addis Neger that he was picked by three government agents while leaving the Café and warned that “visiting anit-peace websites using proxy servers is a crime” and advised “to correct such bad habits.” Though remained unconfirmed, similar reports are coming from other parts of the City in the last three weeks.

4 kilo is the among the most popular centers of Addis Ababa surrounded by Addis Ababa University Campuses and other institutions, famous cafes, internet centers/cafes and book stores. Similarly, Piassa is a historical land mark and the center of the City crowded by businesses of all kinds.

Ethiopian perspectives on London riots

By Eskinder Nega

Had it transpired anywhere in the US, home to world-famous Uzi-brandishing street gangs, hardly any other person but victim and family would have paused to take notice. But fatal police shootings are still rare in the UK. They tend to raise many eyebrows.

Operation Trident Officers, who are tasked with tracking gun related crimes in London’s formidable African and Caribbean communities, had no reason to suspect that the pending August 4th, 2011, arrest of Mark Duggan, 29, would be anything but routine.

How events exactly unfolded when Duggan was approached by the police is not yet clear. But shots had suddenly rung out and by the time it was over Duggan was dead; a police officer had been wounded; and a police radio had been wreaked by a bullet.

Mark Duggan was no criminal. The police had no record of him. He was well liked by friends and neighbors. The gun fight dumbfounded his world-famous community in north London, Tottenham.

This is London’s most diverse neighborhood; more than 300 languages are reportedly spoken. It’s also where city’s highest unemployment rate is concentrated. Little of London’s fabled wealth is evident here. Crime, petty as well as organized, and dominated by rival armed gangs, thrives on the backstreets. Tottenham had its first riot in the mid-80s following the death of a black woman during a search of her home by the police. This was a week after the infamous riots of Brixton, and much to the shock of Britain a police officer was killed by protesters, a first in more than 150 years. And suddenly, not only did Tottenham, mostly immigrant and non-white, but also the police, mostly white and indigenous, had reason to be angry. Worse, there was ample room for more bitterness over the subsequent trial of three minors and three adults charged with murder of the police officer.

The two sides more or less remained at odds ever since. Residents complained of alleged police heavy handedness while law enforcement officials quietly mulled over alleged un-British disregard of law and order. An explosion was inevitable.

Protest began two days later, August 6, 2011. It was peaceful at first. Three hundred people gathered at Tottenham’s police station demanding “justice for Dunggan’s family.” The authorities responded with police on horseback. They did not expect serious resistance. It was a colossal miscalculation.

Provoked, protesters reacted with devastating ferocity. Two police cars were immediately torched. And before anyone could give serious thought to what had happened, violence had spread all over Tottenham. Three hours later, more than forty fires had been set around Tottenham. Another two more hours and the protests had degenerated into widespread looting. Anarchy was threatening to overwhelm parts of north London.

Britain was shocked. The public could see no rational for the lootings. Outrage rather than copycat riots was expected for the next day, Sunday, August 7, 2011. But that was exactly what did not happen.

The riots first spread to Enfield and Brixton. Police were attacked, fires set and stores looted. Oxford circus, Chingford Mount, Ponders End and Islington were soon under siege by rampaging youth. The police were distressed. They did not have enough personnel to contain a city wide rampage.

Worse was to come on Monday, now the third night of riots. Scotland Yard reported “that areas of north, east and south London were affected.” Birmingham and Manchester joined on Tuesday. The speed with which the riots spread was simply breathtaking. Despite loud criticism by the fiery British tabloid press, no law enforcement apparatus could have been prepared for it.

This is where yet another crucial lesson lies for Ethiopia’s archaic ruling party, the EPRDF. Despite reprehensible lootings by rioters and the omnipresence of hysterical tabloids, there is more to the English riots than mere criminality. Unemployment and hopelessness are underlying causes. If protests break out in Ethiopia for any reason they will also spread swiftly and uncontrollably like they did in England. There is repression, corruption, inflation, unemployment and rising hopelessness to serve as underlying causes. But unlike the apolitical British protests, Ethiopia’s will most probably be quickly overwhelmed by the political issues of repression and change. And as has happened in Egypt and Syria there will then be no turning back.

The longer reforms are delayed, the more the imperative for Ethiopia, peaceful transition to democracy, will be at stake. The British will not prevent further riots by merely increasing the number of police on the streets. Social ills will have to be tackled earnestly. Neither could the EPRDF relay indefinitely on the strength of its security network to prevent an explosion. Both Meles Zenawi and the EPRDF have overstayed. Change is inevitable and should be accommodated rather than resisted futilely.

But six months have now passed since the demise of Mubarak’s rule in Egypt. And the much predicted protests have yet to break out in Ethiopia. Does this mean that analysts have after all been off mark? Or has the increased police presence on Addis’ streets effectively deterred protests permanently?

Not necessarily.

The repression is as unrelenting as ever. Food inflation has reached the atrocious 50 % mark. Unemployment shows no sign of declining. Small businesses, the backbone of the expanding service sector, are suffering perceptibly. The specter of famine dominates the headlines. Corruption is getting worse. There is growing tension within the ruling party. And overshadowing all these is the Arab Spring, which has inspired the restive urban youth. The analysts have always been right. These factors matter more than the repressive capabilities of the state. The threat of an explosion will continue to loom large for the foreseeable future.

The police and security services both in Ethiopia and Britain should be given a break. It’s not for them to solve the underlying problems their countries face. In democratic Britain the remedy lies in economics and social policies. In authoritarian Ethiopia it lies squarely in politics.

________

Fight tyranny from your PC. Ethiomedia.com is blocked in Ethiopia. Keep posting articles on your Facebook page, which is accessible in Ethiopia.