Saturday, January 17, 2009

After Ethiopia Exit, What Next for Somalia?

By Alex Perry (Time.com)

The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia is a gamble not unlike America's planned drawdown from Iraq. The Ethiopians, with U.S. assistance, invaded to topple an Islamist movement that controlled Mogadishu, and had been sheltering a handful of al-Qaeda operatives. Osama bin Laden's movement killed more than 200 people when they attacked two U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, and several small groups of U.S. special operations soldiers accompanied the Ethiopians in the hope that the invasion would flush local operatives out into the open. The Ethiopians drove out the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), but quickly became the target of the Islamist Shabaab insurgency that has raged ever since. Having gone in to provide a solution, the Ethiopian presence quickly became a new problem — and a coalition of clan warlords the Ethiopians were meant to install as a government is in disarray. By ending their occupation, the Ethiopians are hoping to deprive the insurgency of one of the grievances around which it rallies support, but it's uncertain who will wield power in their wake. (See pictures of Ethiopia's harvest of hunger.)
Like the U.S. in Iraq, the Ethiopians won't admit defeat or miscalculation, but are seeking to withdraw as honorably as possible. But what will they leave behind? In Iraq, the U.S. has taken confidence from the emergence of the Sunni Awakening movement, former insurgents who drove al-Qaeda out of their communities (even if their relations with the Shi'ite-led Iraqi government remain tense). A similar movement has begun to emerge in Mogadishu, reflecting the moderate, tolerant Islam that has traditionally prevailed in Somalia. But Somalia hasn't had a government to speak of for 18 years. There are no institutions that can be revived to institutionalize the new pro-law, anti-extremist movement. And the ICU is remembered, during its brief reign, for bringing the first semblance of law and order Somalia had seen in a generation.
And then there's the complication of the Shabaab's links to al-Qaeda, a fact that means occasional U.S. air strikes are likely to continue even after the Ethiopians have gone. That could complicate stabilization and reconstruction efforts, since anti-American hostility makes any Western presence — even aid organizations or journalists — a target for the Shabaab. (See pictures of al-Qaeda.)
Add to that the problem of piracy off Somalia's coast that has lately had the country back in the headlines. Piracy is driven by poverty, and the frustration at seeing the world's fishing fleets plunder your waters, while the global economy, in the form of heavily laden container ships transiting the Suez Canal, quite literally pass you by. Killing pirates, as an international armada now gathering off Somalia aims to do, doesn't address that. It might briefly deter them, but it doesn't address the root cause of the problem.
The primary effect of Ethiopia's pull-out will simply be to stop Ethiopian troops being killed on the streets of Mogadishu. It will take a lot more than that to fix Somalia.

Eritrea rejects U.N. demand for border pull-back

NAIROBI, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Eritrea has rejected a U.N. Security Council demand that it withdraw military forces from its border with Djibouti within five weeks.Djibouti accuses its Horn of Africa neighbour of sending troops across the frontier last June, triggering several days of battles that killed a dozen Djiboutian troops and wounded dozens more. Eritrea denies making any incursions."Under strong pressure from self-interested powers, the U.N. Security Council...adopted an ill-considered, unbalanced and unnecessary resolution against Eritrea," the Foreign Ministry in Asmara said in a statement on Thursday night."Any balanced examination of the situation would lead to the conclusion that this measure cannot have been motivated by any genuine considerations of the rule of law."Djibouti hosts U.S. and French military bases and is the main route to the sea for Eritrea's arch-foe and Washington's main regional ally, Ethiopia. Djibouti also accuses Eritrea of seizing what it says is its territory on the Red Sea coast.On Wednesday, the resolution approved by all 15 Security Council members praised Djibouti for withdrawing its forces to pre-conflict positions and condemned Eritrea for not doing so.It demanded Asmara pull back all of its forces to their previous locations within five weeks, but did not say what would happen if Eritrea did not comply.Asmara accused Security Council members of ignoring what it called breaches of international law by Ethiopia, with which it fought a 1998-2000 border war that killed 70,000 people.Eritrea says Ethiopia still occupies frontier towns that it was awarded by an independent commission. Addis Ababa denies it."Instead of addressing these real breaches of international law, the U.N. Security Council has seen it appropriate to pass a resolution...against Eritrea on a manufactured 'border dispute'," the Eritrean government said in its statement."Eritrea has not occupied any land that belongs to Djibouti. It obviously cannot accept a resolution that demands the 'withdrawal of its forces' from its own territory." (Reporting by Daniel Wallis; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

HRW Report- Ethiopia(2008)

Ethiopia

Events of 2008

The Ethiopian government's human rights record remains poor, marked by an ever-hardening intolerance towards meaningful political dissent or independent criticism. Ethiopian military forces have continued to commit war crimes and other serious abuses with impunity in the course of counterinsurgency campaigns in Ethiopia's eastern Somali Region and in neighboring Somalia.
Local-level elections in April 2008 provided a stark illustration of the extent to which the government has successfully crippled organized opposition of any kind-the ruling party and its affiliates won more than 99 percent of all constituencies, and the vast majority of seats were uncontested. In 2008 the government launched a direct assault on civil society by introducing legislation that would criminalize most independent human rights work and subject NGOs to pervasive interference and control.

Political Repression
The limited opening of political space that preceded Ethiopia's 2005 elections has been entirely reversed. Government opponents and ordinary citizens alike face repression that discourages and punishes free expression and political activity. Ethiopian government officials regularly subject government critics or perceived opponents to harassment, arrest, and even torture, often reflexively accusing them of membership in "anti-peace" or "anti-people" organizations. Farmers who criticize local leaders face threats of losing vital agricultural inputs such as fertilizer or the selective enforcement of debts owed to the state. The net result is that in most of Ethiopia, and especially in the rural areas where the overwhelming majority of the population lives, there is no organized opposition to the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).
The local-level elections in April 2008 were for kebele and wereda administrations, which provide essential government services and humanitarian assistance, and are often the institutions used to directly implement repressive government policies. In the vast majority of constituencies there were no opposition candidates at all, and candidates aligned with the EPRDF won more than 99 percent of all available seats.
Where opposition candidates did contest they faced abuse and improper procedural obstacles to registration. Candidates in Ethiopia's Oromia region were detained, threatened with violence by local officials, and accused of affiliation to the rebel Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). Oromia, Ethiopia's most populous region, has long suffered from heavy-handed government repression, with students, activists, or critics of rural administrations regularly accused of being OLF operatives. Such allegations often lead to arbitrary imprisonment and torture.
War Crimes and Other Abuses by Ethiopian Military Forces
Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) personnel stationed in Mogadishu continued in 2008 to use mortars, artillery, and "Katyusha" rockets indiscriminately in response to insurgent attacks, devastating entire neighborhoods of the city. Insurgent attacks often originate in populated areas, prompting Ethiopian bombardment of civilian homes and public spaces, sometimes wiping out entire families. Many of these attacks constitute war crimes. In July ENDF forces bombarded part of the strategic town of Beletweyne after coming under attack by insurgent forces based there, displacing as many as 75,000 people.
2008 was also marked by the proliferation of other violations of the laws of war by ENDF personnel in Somalia. Until late 2007, Ethiopian forces were reportedly reasonably disciplined and restrained in their day-to-day interactions with Somali civilians in Mogadishu. However, throughout 2008 ENDF forces in Mogadishu participated in widespread acts of murder, rape, assault, and looting targeting ordinary residents of the city, often alongside forces allied to the Somali Transitional Federal Government. In an April raid on a Mogadishu mosque ENDF soldiers reportedly killed 21 people; seven of the dead had their throats cut.
ENDF forces have also increasingly fired indiscriminately on crowds of civilians when they come under attack. In August ENDF soldiers were hit by a roadside bomb near the town of Afgooye and responded by firing wildly; in the resulting bloodbath as many as 60 civilians were shot and killed, including the passengers of two crowded minibuses.
In Ethiopia itself, the ENDF continues to wage a counterinsurgency campaign against the rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) in the country's restive Somali region. The scale and intensity of military operations seems to have declined from a peak in mid-2007, but arbitrary detentions, torture, and other abuses continue. Credible reports indicate that vital food aid to the drought-affected region has been diverted and misused as a weapon to starve out rebel-held areas. The military continues to severely restrict access to conflict-affected regions and the Ethiopian government has not reversed its decision to evict the International Committee of the Red Cross from the region in July 2007.
The Ethiopian government denies all allegations of abuses by its military and refuses to facilitate independent investigations. There have been no serious efforts to investigate or ensure accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Somali Region and in neighboring Somalia in 2007 and 2008. Nor have ENDF officers or civilian officials been held accountable for crimes against humanity that ENDF forces carried out against ethnic Anuak communities during a counterinsurgency campaign in Gambella region in late 2003 and 2004.
Regional Renditions
In early 2007 at least 90 men, women, and children from 18 different countries fleeing conflict in Somalia were arrested in Kenya and subsequently deported to Somalia and then Ethiopia, where many were interrogated by US intelligence agents. An unknown number of people arrested by Ethiopian forces in Somalia were also directly transferred to Ethiopia. Many of the victims of these "regional renditions" were released in mid-2007 and early 2008, but at least two men, including a Kenyan and a Canadian national, remain in Ethiopian detention almost two years after their deportation from Kenya. The whereabouts and fate of at least 22 others rendered to Ethiopia, including Eritreans, Somalis, and Ethiopian Ogadeni and Oromo, is unknown.
Civil Society and Free Expression
The environment for civil society continues to deteriorate. In 2008 the government announced new legislation-the Charities and Societies Proclamation-which purports to provide greater oversight and transparency on civil society activities. In fact, the law would undermine the independence of civil society and criminalizes the work of many human rights organizations. At this writing, the law looked set to be introduced to parliament.
Alongside a complex and onerous system of government surveillance and control, the law would place sharp restrictions on the kinds of work permissible to foreign organizations and Ethiopian civil society groups that receive some foreign funding-barring such organizations from any kind of work touching on human rights issues. Individuals who fail to comply with the law's Byzantine provisions could face criminal prosecution.
A new media law passed in July promises to reform some of the most repressive aspects of the previous legal framework. Most notably, the law eliminates the practice of pretrial detention for journalists-although in August, the prominent editor of the Addis Ababa-based Reporter newspaper was imprisoned without charge for several days in connection with a story printed in the paper. In spite of its positive aspects, the law remains flawed-it grants the government significant leeway to restrain free speech, including by summarily impounding publications on grounds of national security or public order. The law also retains criminal penalties including prison terms for journalists found guilty of libel or defamation.
In March 2008 civil society activists Daniel Bekele and Netsanet Demissie were released from more than two years of incarceration, but only after the Ethiopian Federal High Court convicted them of "incitement" related to the 2005 elections.
Key International Actors
The United States and European donor states provide the Ethiopian government with large sums of bilateral assistance, including direct budgetary support from the United Kingdom and military assistance from the US. The US is Ethiopia's largest bilateral donor and has also provided logistical and political support for Ethiopia's protracted intervention in Somalia, and provides bilateral assistance to the Ethiopian military. Donor governments view Ethiopia as an important ally in an unstable region and, in the case of the US, in the "global war on terror."
The US, UK, and other key donors and political allies have consistently refused to publicly criticize widespread abuses or to demand meaningful improvements in Ethiopia's human rights record. The sole exception in 2008 lay in donor government efforts to lobby against the repressive civil society legislation introduced by the government. No major donor made any significant effort to raise serious concerns about or demand a concrete response to war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ethiopia or ENDF atrocities in Somalia.
Ethiopia remains deadlocked over a boundary dispute with Eritrea dating from the two countries' 1998-2000 war. The war in Somalia is another source of tension between the two countries, with Eritrea backing and hosting one faction of the insurgency Ethiopian troops are fighting against in Somalia. Eritrea also plays host to other Ethiopian rebel movements, notably the OLF and ONLF, with the aim of destabilizing the Ethiopian government.
China's importance as a trading partner to Ethiopia grows year by year. According to official figures Chinese investment in Ethiopia totals more than US$350 million annually, up from just $10 million in 2003.
Ethiopia is due to be reviewed under the Universal Periodic Review mechanism of the UN Human Rights Council in December 2009.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Somali executed for 'apostasy'

BBC NEWS- Africa-A Somali politician has been executed after being accused of changing his religion by working with non-Muslim Ethiopian forces.
An Islamist spokesman in the port of Kismayo told the BBC that Abdirahman Ahmed was shot dead on Thursday.
Mr Ahmed had worked with Kismayo's former warlord - the MP Barre Hirale - who is accused of attempting to retake the city with Ethiopian backing.
Ethiopian forces are leaving Somalia, after trying to oust Islamists in 2006.
But their mission is largely regarded as a failure as most of the country is controlled by Islamists again.
A group of hardline Islamists retook the coastal city of Kismayo in last August.
Islamist authorities in the city stoned a 12-year-old girl to death for adultery in November, although her aunt said she was raped.
Relatives of Abdirahman Ahmed - also known as Waldiire - told the BBC he did not have a lawyer present during his trial in a Sharia court.
They say he was arrested about a week ago and they were informed of his death sentence on Thursday morning.
After his execution his brother pleaded to be able to bury his body, however, he was told the burial had already been done.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Grenade blast wounds 33 at Ethiopian bus station

January 15th, 2009
Reuters - An apparently accidental hand-grenade explosion wounded 33 people, nine seriously, on Thursday at the central bus station in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, police said.
“This does not appear to be a terrorist attack. It seems a passenger was carrying the grenade in their luggage and it detonated accidentally,” federal police commander Demash Hailu told Reuters.
In the past, Ethiopia has accused arch-foe Eritrea of backing rebels who have bombed civilian targets in Addis Ababa.
Blasts at two petrol stations killed two people a day after local, regional and federal elections in April 2008, then a bomb tore through a minibus taxi a month later, killing six.

Power vacuum as Ethiopian troops leave Mogadishu

MOGADISHU, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Ethiopian troops supporting Somalia's government withdrew completely from Mogadishu on Thursday, witnesses said, leaving a power vacuum in the capital that is expected to lead to more bloodshed.Islamist hardliners from the al Shabaab insurgent group have ambushed the departing soldiers and also clashed with other militias in a deepening power struggle between rebel factions."I saw the last convoy of Ethiopian forces passing by on the road. Most of them were walking alongside their vehicles," said Ahmed Farax Nur, who lives on the outskirts of the capital and was woken by the tanks rumbling past in the dark.Abdifatah Ibrahim Shaaweye, deputy governor of Banadir Region which includes Mogadishu, told Reuters the last Ethiopian troops had quit their remaining bases in the city overnight.Some analysts fear the withdrawal of an estimated 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers will cause more violence in Somalia, which has been mired in civil conflict for the last 18 years.But others believe it could be a positive development for the Horn of Africa nation -- which the United States has long feared could become a haven for militants -- spurring more moderate Islamists to join a new, more inclusive administration.There have been few signs of that so far.The rebels have fought the Western-backed interim government for two years, and are also increasingly fighting each other.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Huge Rally in Frankfurt



As part of the worldwide rally, hundreds of Ethiopians living in Germany held a demonstration on January 14, 2009 before the Office of the Ethiopian Consulate in Frankfurt protesting the rearrest of opposition leader Birtukan Mideksa. The peacefull protestors called for her release and all other political prisoners including Bekele Jirata, General Secretary of the Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM) party; Abera Yemane-Ab, a long time political activist who led a delegation from the United States in 1993 representing the Coalition of Ethiopian Democratic Forces (COEDF) and was imprisoned upon his arrival at the Bole International Airport.

Ethiopian MPs united in denouncing Birtukan’s arrest

January 6th, 2009 EthioPolitics.com
By Kirubel Tadesse

Various opposition leaders have been condemning the revocation of Birtukan’s pardon in interviews given to international and local press.
Strong condemnation came from MP Bulcha Demeksa, Chairman of the opposition Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM).
“We strongly condemn the act as Birtukan’s arrest would disturb the ongoing political process peace and stability,” Bulcha said, adding that the decision could be taken as destroying a political party.
Other MPs see the arrest as harming open political dialogue.
“If the government is going to charge party leaders every time they give political statements, it will be very difficult to participate in the peaceful political process,” another opposition MP, Dr. Merara Gudina, explained. “What strikes me most is that the ruling party, which claims to encourage women’s political participation, has eliminated the top woman politician.”
MP Professor Beyene Petros, advises the government not engage in political squabbles, which he said won’t benefit the nation. “The message is clear and directed to all other political parties,” Professor Beyene commented.